• Wondering whether Scotts Miracle-Gro at around US$60.06 is priced for a recovery or still carrying too much risk? This article focuses on what the current share price might be implying about value.
• The stock has been volatile recently, with a 7 day return of an 8.1% decline, a 30 day return of a 6.0% decline, and a 1 year return of 14.3%, while the 5 year return sits at a 70.3% decline.
• Recent headlines around Scotts Miracle-Gro have focused on the company’s position in consumer lawn and garden products and the challenges and opportunities in that market. This context has framed the share price as investors reassess both risk and potential resilience in the business.
• On Simply Wall St’s value checks, Scotts Miracle-Gro currently scores 6 out of 6. The sections that follow break down how different valuation approaches line up with that score and point to an even richer way of thinking about value at the end of the article.

Approach 1: Scotts Miracle-Gro Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s value. For Scotts Miracle-Gro, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.

The company’s latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $358.9 million. Analysts provide forecasts out to 2028, where Free Cash Flow is projected at $293.0 million, and Simply Wall St extends those estimates further using its own assumptions. Across the 2026 to 2035 period, the model uses annual Free Cash Flow figures in the $277.7 million to $367.3 million range, all expressed in $.

Pulling these projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $95.76 per share, compared with a current share price of about $60.06. That implies the stock screens as roughly 37.3% undervalued on this method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Scotts Miracle-Gro is undervalued by 37.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Scotts Miracle-Gro Price vs Earnings

P/E is a common way to value profitable companies because it connects what you pay for each share with the earnings that support that price. In simple terms, higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk often justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually line up with a lower, more cautious P/E.

Scotts Miracle-Gro currently trades on a P/E of 16.91x. That sits below the broader Chemicals industry average of 29.48x and slightly below the peer group average of 17.73x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for the stock is 18.68x. The Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what a more tailored P/E might look like after accounting for factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks.

Because the Fair Ratio is customised to Scotts Miracle-Gro, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peers, which may differ on size, risk or profitability. Comparing the current P/E of 16.91x with the Fair Ratio of 18.68x suggests the stock is trading below that tailored level.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Scotts Miracle-Gro Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives take that idea further by letting you spell out your story for Scotts Miracle-Gro, connect it to specific assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins, and then translate that into a Fair Value that you can compare with the current share price.

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is a clear, written view of how you think the company’s business unfolds, supported by numbers like expected profit margins, discount rates and future P/E, so your story and your forecast sit in one place instead of being separate thoughts.

These Narratives live in the Community page on Simply Wall St, are used by millions of investors, and are designed to be simple to update as new earnings, news or guidance arrives. This means your Fair Value can adjust as soon as your view changes.

For Scotts Miracle-Gro, one investor might build a more cautious Narrative that lines up with a Fair Value around US$43.49, while another might lean into a more optimistic Narrative closer to US$89.93. By comparing each Fair Value with a current price near US$60.06, both investors can decide whether the stock looks more like an opportunity or a hold back for their own approach.

For Scotts Miracle-Gro, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Scotts Miracle-Gro Narratives:

Fair value: US$75.50

Implied undervaluation vs US$60.06: about 20.4%

Revenue growth assumption: 134%

• Analysts identify product refreshes, more natural formulas and digital marketing as ways to keep the brand relevant with younger, eco focused consumers and to support higher margin sales.
• Cost savings programs, supply chain automation and the planned Hawthorne divestiture are expected to support margin improvement, reduce earnings volatility and focus capital on core consumer categories.
• The narrative draws on analyst forecasts for higher profit margins by 2028 and a P/E of 16.3x on those earnings, with a consensus target price of US$76.00 that is above the recent share price.

Fair value: US$43.49

Implied overvaluation vs US$60.06: about 38.1%

Revenue growth assumption: 225%

• This narrative emphasises that past swings in demand, inventory corrections and cannabis exposure have weighed on results and still influence sentiment toward the stock.
• It highlights Scotts Miracle-Gro's push into more professional style cultivation inputs, where reliability and cost efficiency matter more than consumer branding, and where competition and execution risk remain important.
• The author presents the story as one of durability rather than rapid expansion, with the current pricing viewed as requiring investors to weigh cannabis related uncertainty and the pace of any shift toward controlled environment agriculture.

If these two Narratives help clarify your own view, you can step through the full community range and see how other investors are joining the dots between growth, risk and value for Scotts Miracle-Gro See what the community is saying about Scotts Miracle-Gro

Do you think there's more to the story for Scotts Miracle-Gro? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.