Recent Share Performance for TriCo Bancshares

Without a single defining headline event, TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) still gives investors useful reference points, with the stock last closing at $53.55 and showing positive total returns over multiple recent periods.

Over the past month and past 3 months, TriCo Bancshares has recorded gains of 4.3% and 15.1%, with year to date and 1 year total returns of 13.6% and 34.4%. For longer timeframes, 3 year and 5 year total returns stand at 73.5% and 44.8%.

TriCo Bancshares' recent share price return of 4.2% over the past week and 15.1% over 3 months, together with a 34.4% 1 year total shareholder return, suggests steadily building momentum as investors reassess growth prospects and risk.

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With TriCo Bancshares trading at $53.55 alongside an indicated intrinsic discount of about 32% and a modest gap to the average analyst price target, the key question is simple: is there real value left here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Preferred Price-to-Earnings of 13.3x: Is it justified?

TriCo Bancshares is trading on a P/E of 13.3x, which sits below the SWS fair P/E estimate of 10.6x but below the peer group average of 28.1x, giving a mixed valuation signal around the current $53.55 share price.

The P/E multiple compares what investors are paying today for each dollar of TriCo Bancshares' earnings, which matters a lot for a bank with established profitability. With earnings growing 2.6% per year over the past 5 years and 13.6% over the last year, and net profit margins currently at 31%, the market is assigning a valuation that recognizes profits but does not match the far higher levels seen across the broader peer group.

On one side, the stock is described as expensive versus the fair P/E estimate of 10.6x, which suggests the market is paying a premium relative to that regression based fair ratio. On the other side, the same 13.3x P/E is characterized as good value against a peer average of 28.1x and only slightly above the wider US Banks industry average of 12.2x, indicating investors are not paying the kind of elevated multiple that some banks command. If market expectations move closer to the fair ratio, that would imply a lower P/E than today, while convergence toward peer levels would point in the opposite direction.

Result: Price-to-earnings of 13.3x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, TriCo Bancshares still faces risks, including shifts in credit quality affecting its US$128.88 million net income and changing investor sentiment around its 13.3x P/E valuation.

Another View: What the SWS DCF Model Says About TriCo Bancshares

While the current 13.3x P/E leaves TriCo Bancshares looking roughly in line with the broader US Banks industry, the SWS DCF model points in a different direction. It suggests the stock is trading below an estimated fair value of $78.85 and at a discount of about 32%.

This kind of gap between earnings based valuation and a discounted cash flow result can signal either a potential opportunity or a sign that market participants are cautious about the assumptions baked into long term cash flows. The question for you is which story feels more realistic.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out TriCo Bancshares for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 43 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals so far leave you curious rather than convinced, take a close look at the details yourself, compare the numbers, and weigh the 4 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond TriCo Bancshares?

Before you move on, give yourself options by lining up a few more ideas alongside TriCo Bancshares, so you are not relying on a single stock story.

• Target resilience by focusing on companies that prioritize financial strength and dependable balance sheets through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (48 results).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.