JGB yields fall as inflation worries ease on renewed hopes for Middle East peace

By Junko Fujita

- Japanese government bond (JGB) yields fell on Friday as inflation concerns eased on rising hopes for peace in the Middle East.

Here are a few details:

  • The benchmark 10-year JGB yield JP10YTN=JBTC fell 4 basis points to 2.640%. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

  • U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said Washington and Tehran could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, but Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement.

  • Oil prices fell over $1 on Friday, extending losses from the previous session.

  • BOJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1%, and signal its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs.

  • Markets are awaiting comments from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida at the post-meeting briefing on June 16.

  • Governor Kazuo Ueda is in hospital due to an infected liver cyst and will miss the two-day meeting.

  • The yields will likely rise even as Uchida issues comments that signal a cautious stance for policy tightening, said Yuki Kimura, a bond strategist at Okasan Securities.

  • "Such a stance would drive concerns that the BOJ is behind the curve in coping with inflation, and the yields on five- and 10-year bonds could lead the rises," said Kimura.

  • If Uchida makes hawkish comments by highlighting concern about inflation, the yields on two- and five-year bonds could rise as that is a signal for further rate hikes, she said.

  • On Friday, the 20-year JGB yield JP20YTN=JBTC fell 5 bps to 3.525% and the 30-year yield JP30YTN=JBTC fell 6 bps to 3.810%.

  • The five-year yield JP5YTN=JBTC fell 2 bps to 1.905%.