Investors in Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE:LPX) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.6% to close at US$75.49 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were US$574m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.39, an impressive 177% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Louisiana-Pacific's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$2.58b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 65% to US$1.94. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.65b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.62 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$92.50 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Louisiana-Pacific, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$114 and the most bearish at US$66.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2026. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 8.5% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Louisiana-Pacific is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Louisiana-Pacific going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Louisiana-Pacific , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.