By Terence Gabriel

July 9 (Reuters) - U.S. semiconductor stocks are wobbling after fresh U.S.-Iran tensions and disappointing signals from Samsung Electronics 005930.KS rattled confidence in the AI trade this week, and the charts suggest the pain may not be over.

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The pullback follows an extraordinary run. Through the end of June, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index .SOX had surged 101% over the previous six months — its strongest first-half performance on record in data stretching back to 1994. Since then, momentum has evaporated. The index closed on Wednesday at about 12,575, or 14.1% below its June 22 record finish and down nearly 12% for July alone, putting it on track for its worst month since September 2022.

Technical levels are flashing danger signs. The SOX has slipped below its 10-week moving average near 12,675. It also briefly violated a broken weekly trendline around 12,465 that had been acting as support. A weekly close back inside the old trading channel would look ominous — a possible signal that a bigger trend shift is under way.

The June low of 11,794 would be the next line of defense. Below that, the rising 40-week moving average near 8,975 — which cushioned earlier dips this year — becomes the key support to watch. To flip the picture back to bullish, the SOX needs to reclaim the 10-week moving average and hold above it.

What the chart shows:

• SOX down just over 14% from its June 22 record close, on pace for worst month since September 2022

• Index has broken below the 10-week moving average (12,675) and re-entered a previously broken support channel (12,465)

• Next support levels are the June low of 11,794, then the rising 40-week average near 8,975

(Daily markets commentary from Reuters analysts on the signals financial charts are sending - and what they might mean.)