Mapping the Market: Iran optimism could set up the dollar for a steeper fall
By Justin McQueen
May 8 (Reuters) - The dollar rose during the Iran war due to its status as a safe-haven currency. With investors now increasingly optimistic about a resolution to the conflict, the greenback is looking vulnerable. It is sliding toward prices that technical analysts expect could put it on a steeper path lower.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against six major currencies, has been falling toward the price of 97.63, which was the lowest level it hit in the month of April, according to data supplied by LSEG.
Technical analysts attach significance to previous highs and lows - particularly monthly levels - as price points where the market might pause or, if they break, accelerate a move.
A decisive move below 97.63 - which could be a close beneath that level, particularly on a Friday - would increase expectations that the dollar index would continue downward toward 96.5, which was the low for February, and then the January low of 95.55.
However, if the dollar were to start rising and reclaim the 99.10 level, it would increase expectations of further gains.
Factors that could affect the dollar's direction include Friday's U.S. jobs report, though the significance of that data may be undermined by the focus on negotiations to end the Iran conflict.
What the chart shows:
The dollar has been elevated since the start of the Iran war
Recent losses have exposed important levels such as 97.63, which was the April low
After that, the February low would become significant.
Daily markets commentary from Reuters analysts on the signals financial charts are sending - and what they might mean.
