Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Marathon Petroleum delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting US$35b-12% above indicated-andUS$1.73-110% above forecasts- respectively Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Marathon Petroleum's 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$143.7b in 2026. This would be an okay 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 82% to US$28.92. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$138.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$26.18 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Marathon Petroleum's future following the latest results, with a decent improvement in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$257, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Marathon Petroleum analyst has a price target of US$335 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$186. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Marathon Petroleum's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Marathon Petroleum is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Marathon Petroleum's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$257, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Marathon Petroleum going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Marathon Petroleum (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.