How McDonald's earnings and leadership changes frame the stock today

McDonald's (MCD) has just combined a fresh set of quarterly results with a major leadership shift in its core U.S. business, giving investors new data points to reassess the stock.

For the second quarter to June 30, 2026, McDonald's reported revenue of US$7,099 million compared with US$6,843 million a year earlier. Net income was US$2,362 million versus US$2,253 million, while diluted earnings per share from continuing operations came in at US$3.32 compared with US$3.14.

Over the first half of 2026, revenue was US$13,616 million compared with US$12,799 million in the same period of 2025. Net income for the six months was US$4,345 million versus US$4,121 million, and diluted EPS from continuing operations was US$6.10 compared with US$5.74.

Alongside these earnings and the appointment of Skye Anderson as President of McDonald's USA, the stock has had a softer run. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 7.96%, while the 5 year total shareholder return is up 28.92%. As a result, momentum has cooled recently compared with its longer record.

If you are reassessing McDonald's and want to see what else the market is offering, this could be a useful moment to broaden your search with 20 top founder-led companies

McDonald's stock has had a weak 2026 even as earnings and buybacks continue, which leaves a practical question: Does that set up a reasonable entry today, or is it worth waiting for a clearer valuation gap to open?

Most Popular Narrative: 15% Overvalued

The most followed valuation narrative for McDonald's puts fair value at $238.97 versus the last close of $274.48, which implies a premium that recent earnings do not fully explain.

📈McDonald's is unique. Its fast food franchise has taken the world by storm (for a long time now) and its "tasteful" uniqueness and wide moat is shown in its projected operating margins of around ~50%. This increase from the current 40-45% is also attributed to the view that the company could use AI to improve efficiency and increase margins in the process. It is also described as a very stable business with what is characterized as strong capital allocation, with returns on invested capital (ROIC) estimated at around 3 times its cost of capital.

Those projected margins, the long track record of capital returns, and a specific view on long term cash flows all sit behind that $238.97 fair value call. The narrative also weighs modest growth expectations and the maturity of McDonald's business, which matter a lot for where the valuation line is drawn.

Result: Fair Value of $238.97 (OVERVALUED)

However, the McDonald's story could change if health-focused consumer trends accelerate, or if higher input and labor costs pressure those projected margin assumptions.

Another View on McDonald's valuation

There is a clear gap between the $238.97 fair value from the narrative and our SWS DCF model, which puts McDonald's at $253.68 while the stock last closed at $274.48. Both point to an overvalued reading, but they disagree on how stretched the price really is. Which set of assumptions do you find more realistic?

Next Steps

With mixed signals around McDonald's valuation and narrative, this is a moment to look through the numbers and sentiment yourself and decide where you stand. To see a concise summary of both the key risks and the potential rewards that other investors are focused on right now, review the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas beyond McDonald's?

If McDonald's has you thinking more carefully about price, quality, and risk, do not stop here. Use this window to scan other opportunities before they move.

• Target resilient balance sheets and steady fundamentals by running your filters through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (49 results).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.