As you might know, Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) recently reported its second-quarter numbers. Meritage Homes reported US$1.4b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.37 beat expectations, being 6.0% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Meritage Homes' eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$5.42b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$4.96, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.48b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.98 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$82.38, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Meritage Homes at US$93.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$72.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Meritage Homes' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Meritage Homes' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 2.4% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Meritage Homes.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$82.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Meritage Homes going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.