Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) closed FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$73.9 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.22. Trailing twelve month figures show revenue of US$265.1 million and a basic EPS loss of US$6.10. The company’s quarterly revenue moved from US$74.7 million in Q3 2024 to US$73.9 million in Q4 2025, while EPS shifted from a profit of US$0.83 in Q3 2024 to a loss of US$0.22 in the latest quarter. This keeps the focus on how quickly margins can stabilise from here.

See our full analysis for Midland States Bancorp.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to compare these results with the widely held narratives around MSBI to see which stories the data supports and which ones appear out of sync.

Losses Dominate Despite US$265.1 million Trailing Revenue

• Over the last twelve months MSBI generated US$265.1 million in revenue but recorded a net loss of US$133.2 million and a basic EPS loss of US$6.10, showing that top line alone has not been enough to keep the bank in the black.
• What stands out against the more optimistic narrative that earnings are forecast to grow strongly is that trailing losses have deepened at about 45.2% per year over five years. This sits in clear tension with the idea of a near term turnaround and keeps the focus firmly on how quickly those losses can be reined in if revenue keeps growing at a forecast 8.4% a year, below the 10.2% market benchmark.

Credit Quality Metrics Show Mixed Signals

• Non performing loans moved from US$150.9 million in Q4 2024 to US$145.7 million in Q1 2025, then to US$80.1 million in Q2 2025 and US$68.7 million in Q3 2025, so the latest figures in the set are well below the earlier peak even though the bank is still loss making on a trailing basis.
• Bears who focus on regional bank credit risk may see the large net loss of US$143.3 million in Q1 2025 alongside that higher US$145.7 million non performing loan figure as supporting a cautious view. Yet the later reductions in non performing loans to US$80.1 million and then US$68.7 million give some numerical support to the idea that credit issues identified earlier in the period are not static, which matters for how durable the current losses might be if those credit trends continue to differ from the worst point in the data.

Margins and Valuation Pull in Different Directions

• Net interest margin in the quarterly data sits between 3.34% and 3.79% across the periods shown, while the shares trade at US$22.56 against a stated DCF fair value of about US$50.22 and a P/B of 1.0x that is above the 0.8x peer average but slightly below the 1.1x US banks average.
• Consensus narrative around a potential recovery is heavily supported by the combination of a 3.79% net interest margin in Q3 2025 and forecasts for very strong earnings growth. Yet the fact that trailing twelve month earnings are still a loss of US$133.2 million with a 5.67% dividend yield not clearly covered by those earnings means the valuation signals split, with the large gap to DCF fair value on one side and weaker historical profitability on the other for investors to weigh against each other.

Want to see how other investors are connecting these numbers to the longer term story? 📊 Read the what the Community is saying about Midland States Bancorp.

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Midland States Bancorp's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

If this mix of losses and potential recovery themes leaves you unsure, take a closer look at the full picture and decide quickly where you stand. After that, weigh up the balance of 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

MSBI is working through a trailing net loss of US$133.2 million, negative EPS and an uncovered dividend, which all raise questions about risk and resilience.

If you want ideas that may put balance sheet strength and consistency ahead of that kind of uncertainty, take a look at our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (40 results) today and see what stands out on a stricter quality filter.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.