Moelis (MC) has opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$319.8 million and basic EPS of US$0.51, setting the tone for how investors might think about the advisory firm’s earnings power this year. Over the past five reported quarters, revenue has ranged from US$306.6 million in Q1 2025 to US$487.9 million in Q4 2025, while quarterly basic EPS has moved between US$0.51 and US$1.27. This gives a clear sense of how fee volumes and deal activity have been feeding through to the bottom line. With trailing 12 month net margin at 14.5% and earnings growth outpacing revenue on that basis, this latest set of numbers puts profitability firmly in focus for anyone tracking the story.

See our full analysis for Moelis.

With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up with the key bullish and bearish narratives that have built around Moelis over the past year, and where the fresh data starts to challenge those views.

Trailing EPS Nears US$2.93, But Quarterly Swings Remain Large

• On a trailing 12 month basis, basic EPS sits at US$2.93, compared with quarterly EPS that has moved between US$0.51 and US$1.27 over the last six reported quarters, which shows how lumpy individual quarters can look even when the full year picture is steadier.
• Consensus narrative supports the view that this kind of earnings profile can align with more stable growth, yet the history is mixed:
  • Trailing earnings grew 30.3% over the last year after averaging a 19.2% yearly decline over the past five years, so recent strength sits on top of a weaker longer track record.
  • Analysts expect earnings to grow around 27.6% a year, which lines up with the recent upswing but assumes the older five year trend does not reassert itself.

Net Margin Edges Up To 14.5% On US$1.53b Of Revenue

• Over the last 12 months, Moelis generated US$1.53b of revenue with net income of US$221.2 million, giving a 14.5% net margin compared with 13.2% a year earlier, which means a slightly larger share of each advisory dollar is currently falling to the bottom line.
• For bullish investors, this margin profile is a key part of the story, and the numbers give both support and a reality check:
  • Bulls expect margins to move into the high teens over time, and the shift from 13.2% to 14.5% shows directionally higher profitability on the trailing data.
  • At the same time, quarterly net income has ranged from US$38.4 million to US$89.4 million in the last six reported quarters, which underlines how dependent those margins still are on the timing of large deals.

Consistent margin improvement and deal timing are central to the optimistic case that Moelis can compound earnings from here, and you can see how that argument lines up with the detailed bull thesis in the 🐂 Moelis Bull Case

P/E Near Peers While DCF Fair Value Sits At US$98.66

• At a share price of US$65.12, Moelis trades on a trailing P/E of 21.6x, roughly in line with peers at 21.5x and below the 41.9x P/E for the broader US Capital Markets group, while a DCF fair value of US$98.66 in the dataset sits well above the current price.
• Bears focus on how quickly conditions could change around that valuation and the earnings that underpin it:
  • They point to the earlier five year earnings decline of 19.2% per year and the volatile quarterly net income, arguing that a peer level P/E may not fully capture the cyclicality in Moelis's advisory fees.
  • They also highlight that dividend payments have been flagged as unstable, which matters if you are counting on income as part of the return while waiting to see if the DCF fair value case plays out.

If you want to see how the more cautious camp frames these same numbers, the detailed bear thesis sets out that side of the argument in one place in the 🐻 Moelis Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Moelis on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

After weighing both sides of the Moelis story, the real question is how the mix of risks and rewards stacks up for you right now. Take a closer look at the details that matter most to your portfolio with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

See What Else Is Out There

Moelis carries a peer level P/E on uneven earnings, with a history of five year earnings decline and dividend payments that have been flagged as unstable.

If that mix of volatility and income uncertainty makes you hesitate, compare it with companies in the 76 resilient stocks with low risk scores to find ideas with steadier profiles and potentially fewer surprises.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.