Overview

• U.S. fertilizer producer's Q1 adjusted EPS missed analyst expectations

• Q1 revenue rose yr/yr, but adjusted EBITDA declined on higher raw material costs

• Company to partially curtail phosphate production due to raw material constraints

Outlook

• Mosaic has withdrawn 2026 phosphate production guidance due to raw material constraints

• Company expects 2026 potash production of about 9 mln tonnes

• Mosaic lowers 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1.25 bln

Result Drivers

• RAW MATERIAL COSTS - Higher sulfur and ammonia prices increased costs and pressured margins, especially in Phosphate and Fertilizantes segments

• BRAZIL OPERATIONS CHARGES - Idling Araxa and Patrocinio in Brazil led to $442 mln in charges, weighing on Mosaic Fertilizantes results

• COST CONTROL ACTIONS - Mosaic curtailed uneconomic production and managed working capital to address volatile conditions, per CEO Bodine

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 7 "strong buy" or "buy", 12 "hold" and 2 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the agricultural chemicals peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Mosaic Co is $28.00, about 26.2% above its May 8 closing price of $22.19

• The stock recently traded at 12 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 12 three months ago

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