Nexa Resources (NEXA) is back in focus after reporting drilling and assay results for the first half of 2026 and lifting its full year exploration program to 66,805 meters.

The latest drilling update lands after a softer trading patch for Nexa Resources, with the share price down 4.11% over one day and 12.71% over 90 days. This comes even though the year to date share price return is 40.61% and the 1 year total shareholder return stands at 149.76%, indicating that recent weakness has not fully offset the stronger longer term performance.

If Nexa's exploration update has you thinking about where else growth or re rating potential might emerge in resources, this could be a good moment to run a focused search through 8 top copper producer stocks

Recent swings in Nexa Resources raise a simple issue: Are investors reacting to the exploration update and the underlying mines and smelters, or has sentiment just cooled after a strong run? And what does that mean for valuation next?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative on Nexa Resources pitches a fair value of $15 per share against the latest close at $12.36. That gap is what has many investors asking how much of the drilling news is already reflected in the price.

Nexa is one of the cheaper ways to gain exposure to zinc and related base metals, but the investment case is stronger than a simple commodity beta trade. The company combines mining and smelting, giving it a more integrated operating model than many peers, and its earnings are supported not only by zinc but also by copper, lead, silver, and gold by-products.

This narrative hangs on one big idea: strong recent profitability, a richer earnings mix from by products, and a valuation framework that leans on future profit multiples rather than just short term zinc pricing. Curious which assumptions sit underneath that $15 figure and how they connect back to Nexa Resources’ recent operating numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $15 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the Nexa Resources story can quickly look different if zinc prices soften, or if its mines and smelters run into operational or regulatory setbacks.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Puts Nexa Resources In A Different Light

The SWS DCF model points to a value of $8.94 per share for Nexa Resources, compared with the current $12.36 price. That implies the stock is trading above this cash flow based estimate, which raises a simple question for investors: Which set of assumptions feels more realistic?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Nexa Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this Nexa Resources story feels finely balanced between concern and optimism, move quickly and stress test the data yourself against the 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more Nexa Resources style investment ideas?

If you want to keep building on the work you have already done on Nexa Resources, use the Simply Wall St screener to uncover fresh stock ideas that fit your style.

• Target potential bargains by prioritising quality and value with the 49 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Lock in potential income ideas by reviewing companies highlighted in the 8 dividend fortresses.
• Reduce portfolio stress by focusing on stability and resilience through the 83 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.