NiSource (NI) has just opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$2.4b and basic EPS of US$1.07, setting the tone for how its earnings story is evolving against the backdrop of its recent history. Over the last few quarters, the company has seen revenue move from US$1.6b in Q4 2024 to US$2.4b in Q1 2026. Quarterly basic EPS has ranged from US$0.20 to just over US$1.00, giving investors a clear view of how earnings scale with the top line. With trailing twelve month EPS at US$2.03 and net profit margin at 14.1%, the latest report keeps the focus firmly on how efficiently NiSource is turning revenue into profit.

See our full analysis for NiSource.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up against the prevailing market narratives around NiSource's growth, risk, and profitability.

TTM earnings climb to US$962.8m

• Over the last twelve months, NiSource earned US$962.8m on US$6.8b of revenue, with trailing EPS of US$2.03 that sits above any single quarterly EPS figure reported in the recent history.
• Consensus narrative points to infrastructure upgrades and grid modernization as key supports for long term regulated revenue. However, the trailing net margin of 14.1% is slightly below last year’s 14.6%, which shows cost efficiencies are working alongside some margin pressure rather than producing a clear, one way profitability story.
  • Revenue across the last four reported quarters moved from US$5.5b to US$6.8b, which aligns with the idea of steady regulated top line progress but also highlights that earnings growth of 10.9% is running ahead of the modeled 5.9% revenue growth rate.
  • Analysts’ consensus view of long run EPS support from a US$19.4b capital plan connects well with this 10.9% earnings growth. At the same time, the modest margin dip from 14.6% to 14.1% shows those investments come with cost and regulatory trade offs that investors need to factor in.

Premium P/E and DCF gap

• NiSource trades on a P/E of 23.7x compared with a peer average of 22.5x and an industry average of 19x. The DCF fair value of US$37.50 sits below the current share price of US$47.51 and the analyst consensus target of US$50.79.
• Critics highlight that this premium adds valuation risk on top of fundamental risks, since interest payments are not well covered by earnings and the 2.53% dividend is not well covered by free cash flow, which can matter if cash needs grow faster than the 10.9% earnings increase seen over the last year.
  • The gap between the share price at US$47.51 and the DCF fair value of US$37.50 means investors are paying above this cash flow based estimate, even before considering that NiSource’s P/E is higher than both peers and the broader industry.
  • Bears argue that with earnings forecast to grow about 10% per year and revenue about 5.9% per year, any disappointment in that path or further pressure on interest coverage and dividend cash coverage could weigh more heavily when the stock already carries this valuation premium.

Skeptics watching the valuation and balance sheet pressures might want to see how a more cautious long term case is framed in context of these numbers 🐻 NiSource Bear Case

Quarterly swings around a steady trend

• Quarterly basic EPS over the last six reported periods has ranged from about US$0.20 to just over US$1.00, with Q1 2026 at US$1.07 and Q1 2025 at US$1.01, while trailing EPS across those same periods sits between US$1.63 and US$2.03, which points to lumpier quarters around a smoother twelve month trend.
• Consensus narrative suggests major rate based investment and constructive regulation can support 6% to 8% annual EPS growth. The current trailing EPS path from US$1.63 to US$2.03 alongside revenue moving from US$5.5b to US$6.8b fits with that idea, but the small drop in net margin from 14.6% to 14.1% reminds you that even with large capital plans, cost recovery and returns are still being balanced against regulatory and gas transition risks.
  • Within the last five quarters, quarterly revenue has moved between about US$1.27b and US$2.36b, and quarterly net income between about US$94.4m and US$510.7m, which shows how seasonality and rate timing can influence any single report even as the trailing figures move on a smoother path.
  • Bulls argue that planned US$19.4b of capital expenditure and additional upside projects can support continued regulated growth, and the combination of 10.9% trailing earnings growth with a 14.1% margin is consistent with a business that is currently funding large projects while still producing solid profitability.

If you want to see how the bullish long term case for NiSource connects these EPS swings with the capital plan and regulatory backdrop, check out the full narrative breakdown 🐂 NiSource Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for NiSource on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Balancing those risks and rewards can feel tricky, so do not wait to review the underlying data and decide what really matters for your thesis. To help frame both sides clearly, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

NiSource’s premium P/E, slightly thinner net margin, uncovered dividend, and tight interest coverage all point to balance sheet and cash flow pressure that some investors may want to limit.

If you want more comfort around those pressure points, take a few minutes to scan companies in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results) that pair sturdier finances with earnings support.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.