Northeast Community Bancorp (NECB) Net Interest Margin Above 5% Challenges Bearish Credit Narratives
NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc NECB | 0.00 |
Northeast Community Bancorp (NECB) has just posted another quarter of solid profitability, with Q4 2025 revenue at US$26.8 million and basic EPS at US$0.81, while trailing 12 month figures show revenue of US$104.9 million, net income of US$44.4 million and basic EPS of US$3.35. Over the last few quarters, revenue has ranged from US$24.4 million in Q4 2024 to US$27.5 million in Q3 2024 as quarterly EPS moved between US$0.78 and US$0.97. This sets up a story where investors are watching how a 42.3% net profit margin and a 5.25% net interest margin translate into the next phase of earnings quality.
See our full analysis for Northeast Community Bancorp.With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to line them up against the dominant narratives around growth, margins and risk to see which stories still hold and which need a rethink.
42.3% net margin with modest EPS trend
- Over the last 12 months, NECB earned US$44.4 million on US$104.9 million of revenue, which works out to a 42.3% net profit margin compared with 44.9% the prior year and trailing EPS of US$3.35.
- What stands out against the more optimistic, bullish angle of NECB as a steadily compounding earner is that analysts are working with about 5% expected annual EPS growth, while five year earnings growth averaged 28.8% a year and recent quarterly EPS has moved in a relatively tight band between US$0.78 and US$0.97. This suggests a solid profit base but not the same pace of expansion some bulls might hope for.
- For example, net income for the last four reported quarters sat between US$10.2 million and US$12.7 million, and the trailing 12 month figure of US$44.4 million is lower than the prior trailing figure of US$47.1 million, which softens the stronger long term growth story.
- At the same time, the bank has kept quarterly EPS above roughly US$0.78 across the last six reported quarters, and the trailing margin in the low 40% range supports the view that profitability has been resilient even if high growth is not being repeated every year.
Net interest margin at 5.25% with real estate focus
- The trailing 12 month net interest margin is 5.25%, with recent quarterly data showing 5.11% in early 2025, rising to 5.35% and 5.38% in mid 2025, compared with 5.62% in late 2024 and 5.68% in Q3 2024, while non performing loans were US$4.4 million in that Q3 2024 snapshot.
- Bears who focus on NECB as a bank tied closely to construction and real estate lending may point to the easing of net interest margin from 5.62% in late 2024 to 5.25% on a trailing basis. Yet the figures also show that margin has remained above 5%, and that non performing loans of US$4.4 million sit against a loan book that has been in the US$1.7 billion to US$1.9 billion range, which partly challenges the idea that credit quality or spread income is under acute pressure.
- Critics highlight that total loans have moved between about US$1,725.7 million and US$1,873.6 million over the last six reported quarters, while net profit margin ticked down from 44.9% to 42.3%, which they read as a sign that very high profitability may be hard to maintain as the book evolves.
- What pushes back on an overly bearish take is that quarterly net income excluding extra items has consistently been around US$10.2 million to US$12.7 million, alongside net interest margins comfortably above 5%, which indicates that the core lending business has remained profitable even with some margin compression.
P/E of 6.7x and 4.17% dividend yield
- At a share price of about US$24.00, NECB trades on a trailing P/E of 6.7x, which is below the US banks industry average of 11.4x and peer average of 11.2x, while the trailing 12 month dividend yield sits at 4.17% and the provided DCF fair value is US$62.21.
- Supporters of a more optimistic, bullish view often point to this combination of lower P/E and income, and the data here backs that up by showing the stock at a large discount to the DCF fair value alongside that 4.17% yield. They also need to weigh it against the fact that recent earnings growth was negative over the last year and forecast EPS growth of about 5% and revenue growth of roughly 4.8% are both below broader US market expectations.
- On one hand, the gap between the DCF fair value of US$62.21 and the current price near US$24.00 is large, and the 6.7x P/E versus roughly 11x for peers supports the idea that NECB is priced more cheaply on these metrics.
- On the other hand, the same trailing figures show a net margin moving from 44.9% to 42.3% and trailing net income at US$44.4 million versus US$47.1 million the prior year, which explains why some investors might treat the discount and yield as compensation for slower growth rather than as a simple mispricing.
Next Steps
Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Northeast Community Bancorp's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.
Given the mix of strengths and concerns in the story so far, it makes sense to review the numbers yourself and form a clear stance. To round out that view and see both sides in one place, take a closer look at the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
See What Else Is Out There
NECB's recent results show earnings and net margin easing from prior levels, with forecasts pointing to slower EPS and revenue growth than broader US market expectations.
If you want income without worrying as much about slower growth, it is worth checking companies in the 12 dividend fortresses that pair higher yields with solid fundamentals.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
