Overview

• U.S. electricity provider's Q1 revenue rose and beat analyst expectations

• Adjusted EPS for Q1 missed analyst expectations

• Company reaffirmed 2026 financial guidance and completed CEO succession previously announced in January

Outlook

• NRG reaffirms 2026 Adjusted Net Income guidance of $1,685-$2,115 mln

• Company maintains 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance of $7.90-$9.90

• NRG expects commercial operations at T.H. Wharton facility by end of May 2026

Result Drivers

• MARK-TO-MARKET LOSSES - Decrease in GAAP Net Income was primarily due to unrealized non-cash losses from mark-to-market economic hedges, driven by lower natural gas prices

• MILD WEATHER IN TEXAS - Texas segment Adjusted EBITDA fell due to mild winter weather, leading to lower retail load and additional operating expenses for new generation assets

• HIGHER SUPPLY COSTS IN EAST - East segment Adjusted EBITDA declined due to higher power supply costs during Winter Storm Fern, partially offset by contributions from acquired assets

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 13 "strong buy" or "buy", 4 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the electric utilities peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for NRG Energy Inc is $200.00, about 27% above its May 5 closing price of $157.43

• The stock recently traded at 16 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 17 three months ago

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