NYSE MAC Desk Market Update 20250314
Happy Friday,
The selling pressure continued yesterday with most major US indices down ~1.5%. Coming into today the S&P 500 is down over 4% WTD and barring a massive rally today this will be the fourth consecutive weekly decline with the index officially entering into “correction territory”, declining 10% from its all-time high. That being said futures are moving higher this morning helped by oversold conditions and a mix of modestly positive commentary on trade, the potential avoidance of a government shutdown, speculation of further stimulus in China and some hope of a Ukraine resolution. S&P and Russell 2k futures are both trading higher by just over 1%.
China was the standout overnight with both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite up ~2% amidst commentary from officials saying they will lower the RRR at the appropriate time. There was also an announcement of press conference on Monday where they are expected to lay out measures to boost domestic consumption. Japan ended modestly higher as the Yen weakened modestly. European indices opened modestly lower but have been rally throughout the morning with the DAX trading up nearly 2%. Germany’s Merz said there is an agreement between CDU, SPD and the Greens to push forward with the fiscal package which will include a €500B infrastructure plan and exempting defense spending from the debt brake. Local yields are moving higher with the 10yr Bund up 7bps to 2.92% back near last week’s high. The Euro is also moving higher up 0.4% against the USD.
Back state side there was some positive commentary from Ontario’s Ford after yesterday’s trade meetings. There has also been some focus on a letter from Tesla to the administration warning of negative impacts of the current trade negotiations. In Congress, Senate Minority Leader Schumer said he would back the GOP bill to fund the government through the end of the year removing the risk of a government shutdown. The only economic data in the US is the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey after the open. US Treasury yields are moving higher with a steepening of the curve up 2-5bps. The USD index was moving higher overnight but has given those gains following the Germany news currently trading down ~0.15% to ~$103.70.
Commodities are mostly higher helped by the China news. ICE Brent were up ~1% but gave up half those gains in the last couple of minutes (I haven’t seen the headline yet). There is some cautious optimism coming out of negotiations with Russia. Putin did reject the 30-day ceasefire but seems open to further negotiations. The US did tighten sanctions on the Russian energy banking sector. Gold rallied sharply yesterday and is up another 0.5% this morning breaking above 3k. Silver is also up 1% though copper is pulling back 0.2%. Ag is mixed. Bitcoin has been rallying overnight up >3% trading ~83.5k.
Global Markets
Asia:
Japan's Nikkei: +0.7% (+0.5% for the week)
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.1% (-1.1% for the week)
China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8% (+1.4% for the week)
India's Sensex: HOLIDAY (-0.7% for the week)
South Korea's Kospi: -0.3% (+0.1% for the week)
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6% (-2.0% for the week)
Europe:
STOXX Europe 600: +0.9% (-1.5% week-to-date)
Germany's DAX: +1.7% (-0.2% week-to-date)
U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% (-0.1% week-to-date)
France's CAC 40: +1.2% (-1.1% week-to-date)
Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.1% (-0.4% week-to-date)
Spain's IBEX 35: +1.1% (-2.3% week-to-date)
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields
The selling pressure continued yesterday with most major US indices down ~1.5%. Coming into today the S&P 500 is down over 4% WTD and barring a massive rally today this will be the fourth consecutive weekly decline with the index officially entering into “correction territory”, declining 10% from its all-time high. That being said futures are moving higher this morning helped by oversold conditions and a mix of modestly positive commentary on trade, the potential avoidance of a government shutdown, speculation of further stimulus in China and some hope of a Ukraine resolution. S&P and Russell 2k futures are both trading higher by just over 1%.
China was the standout overnight with both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite up ~2% amidst commentary from officials saying they will lower the RRR at the appropriate time. There was also an announcement of press conference on Monday where they are expected to lay out measures to boost domestic consumption. Japan ended modestly higher as the Yen weakened modestly. European indices opened modestly lower but have been rally throughout the morning with the DAX trading up nearly 2%. Germany’s Merz said there is an agreement between CDU, SPD and the Greens to push forward with the fiscal package which will include a €500B infrastructure plan and exempting defense spending from the debt brake. Local yields are moving higher with the 10yr Bund up 7bps to 2.92% back near last week’s high. The Euro is also moving higher up 0.4% against the USD.
Back state side there was some positive commentary from Ontario’s Ford after yesterday’s trade meetings. There has also been some focus on a letter from Tesla to the administration warning of negative impacts of the current trade negotiations. In Congress, Senate Minority Leader Schumer said he would back the GOP bill to fund the government through the end of the year removing the risk of a government shutdown. The only economic data in the US is the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey after the open. US Treasury yields are moving higher with a steepening of the curve up 2-5bps. The USD index was moving higher overnight but has given those gains following the Germany news currently trading down ~0.15% to ~$103.70.
Commodities are mostly higher helped by the China news. ICE Brent were up ~1% but gave up half those gains in the last couple of minutes (I haven’t seen the headline yet). There is some cautious optimism coming out of negotiations with Russia. Putin did reject the 30-day ceasefire but seems open to further negotiations. The US did tighten sanctions on the Russian energy banking sector. Gold rallied sharply yesterday and is up another 0.5% this morning breaking above 3k. Silver is also up 1% though copper is pulling back 0.2%. Ag is mixed. Bitcoin has been rallying overnight up >3% trading ~83.5k.
Global Markets
Asia:
Japan's Nikkei: +0.7% (+0.5% for the week)
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.1% (-1.1% for the week)
China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8% (+1.4% for the week)
India's Sensex: HOLIDAY (-0.7% for the week)
South Korea's Kospi: -0.3% (+0.1% for the week)
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6% (-2.0% for the week)
Europe:
STOXX Europe 600: +0.9% (-1.5% week-to-date)
Germany's DAX: +1.7% (-0.2% week-to-date)
U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% (-0.1% week-to-date)
France's CAC 40: +1.2% (-1.1% week-to-date)
Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.1% (-0.4% week-to-date)
Spain's IBEX 35: +1.1% (-2.3% week-to-date)
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields
- US 2yr +1bps to 3.97%, 5yr +4bps to 4.06%, 10yr +4bps to 4.31%, 30yr +5bps to 4.64%
- USD index: -$0.11 to $103.72
- Oil prices - ICE Brent: +0.5% to $70.20, WTI: +0.5% to $66.85, Nat Gas: -2.2% to $4.02
- Gold: +0.4% to $3,003.90, Silver: +0.9% to $34.63, Copper: -0.1% to $4.92
- Wheat: +0.3% to $5.90, Corn: -0.9% to $4.61, Soybeans: +0.0% to $10.11, Cotton: +0.8% to $0.67
- VIX: -0.79 to 23.87
- Bitcoin: +3.4% to ~83.5k
- US:
- 10:00 U of Mich Sentiment
- Global
- China Loan Growth: 7.3% vs. 7.4% cons., prior 7.5%
- China FDI: -20.4% prior -13.4%
- Germany inflation: 0.5%/2.6% m.m/y.y vs. 0.6%/2.8% cons., prior -0.2%/2.8%
- France inflation: 0.1%/0.9% m.m/y.y vs. 0%/0.9% cons., prior -0.2%/1.8%
- UK GDP: -0.1% vs. 0.1% cons,. prior 0.4%