It's been a good week for On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.3% to US$36.84. Revenues were CHF832m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CHF0.31, an impressive 40% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the 26 analysts covering On Holding are now predicting revenues of CHF3.55b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 60% to CHF1.21. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF3.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.12 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on On Holding's earnings potential following these results.

The average the analysts price target fell 5.6% to US$53.21, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values On Holding at US$85.99 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$23.95. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that On Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 19% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 32% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.3% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that On Holding is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards On Holding following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of On Holding's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple On Holding analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.