• In the first quarter of 2026, On Holding AG reported record net sales of CHF 831.9 million and net income of CHF 103.3 million, while reiterating guidance for at least 23% constant-currency net sales growth and reported net sales of at least CHF 3.51 billion for the year.
• Alongside this strong performance, Asia-Pacific growth, especially in China where apparel has become a major revenue contributor, and the return of co-founders as co-CEOs underscored how product expansion and leadership continuity are shaping the company’s next phase.
• We’ll now examine how this strong Q1 performance and higher profit outlook affect On Holding’s existing investment narrative.

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On Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own On Holding, you need to believe the brand can keep growing its premium positioning while turning rapid global expansion into durable, profitable scale. The key short term catalyst remains execution in Asia Pacific, particularly China, where apparel is becoming more meaningful; the biggest risk is that heavy investment and higher prices fail to translate into sustained operating leverage. The latest Q1 beat and raised profit outlook support the bull case for now, but leadership turnover keeps execution risk in focus.

The most relevant recent development is On Holding’s decision to reiterate at least 23% constant currency net sales growth for 2026 while lifting its gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin outlook after Q1. That combination reinforces the core catalyst of mix shift toward higher margin channels and products, even as tariffs and expansion spending continue. It also raises the bar for management to sustain premium pricing and demand without eroding the brand or compressing margins if costs or FX move against them.

Yet behind the strong Q1 and upgraded profit outlook, investors should still pay close attention to how much of On’s momentum now depends on...

On Holding's narrative projects CHF5.3 billion revenue and CHF624.9 million earnings by 2029.

Uncover how On Holding's forecasts yield a $56.41 fair value, a 51% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this Q1 surprise, the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue could reach about CHF 5.5 billion and earnings CHF 725 million by 2028, which is a far more upbeat story than the baseline view and leans heavily on Asia Pacific becoming a second profit engine, so it is worth asking how this quarter might shift that optimistic narrative and what it means for your own expectations.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on On Holding - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your On Holding research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free On Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate On Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.