Oshkosh (OSK) is back in focus after its Oshkosh Defense unit received US$92 million in U.S. Marine Corps delivery orders for ROGUE Fires Block 2, the military's first large scale semi-autonomous ground vehicle deployment.

That ROGUE-Fires contract has coincided with a 4.49% 1 day share price return to US$131.81, although the stock is still down 21.07% on a 90 day share price basis. The 1 year total shareholder return of 30.82% and 3 year total shareholder return of 66.87% point to stronger longer term momentum.

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With Oshkosh trading at US$131.81 and analyst targets sitting higher alongside a flagged intrinsic discount, the real question is whether the recent pullback leaves the stock undervalued or whether markets are already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

Oshkosh’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $164.79, well above the last close of $131.81, putting a spotlight on what is driving that gap.

Expansion of large-scale infrastructure projects and growth in data center construction are fueling robust demand for Oshkosh's specialty vehicles and equipment, creating a multi-year tailwind for order volume and sustained revenue growth. Oshkosh's accelerating innovation in electric, hybrid, and autonomous vehicle technologies positions the company to win incremental business and command higher margins as customers shift toward sustainability and digital solutions.

Curious what sits behind that fair value uplift versus today’s price, and how earnings, margins, and future P/E assumptions fit together? The narrative lays out a full earnings roadmap, ties it to projected revenue growth and margin expansion, and then discounts it all back using a single required return to reach that $164.79 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $164.79 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh the risk that heavy reliance on large government contracts, as well as any renewed tariff or input cost pressure, could challenge this upbeat narrative.

Next Steps

With the article pointing to optimism but also clear risks, it makes sense to move quickly, check the data for yourself, and see if those positives stack up in your view by reviewing the 5 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas?

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• Target potential mispricings by checking companies that appear cheaper than their fundamentals might suggest via the 46 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.