Pagaya Technologies (PGY) opened Q1 2026 with revenue of US$317.9 million and basic EPS of US$0.30, setting a clear marker for how its earnings engine is running right now. The company reported revenue of US$289.9 million and EPS of US$0.10 in Q1 2025 and US$334.8 million and EPS of US$0.40 in Q4 2025. This gives a clear view of how the top and bottom line have tracked into the current quarter, while net income of US$24.7 million keeps the focus firmly on margins.

See our full analysis for Pagaya Technologies.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the widely held stories about Pagaya, and where those narratives might need a rethink.

Trailing 12 months show US$94.1 million profit

• On a trailing 12 month basis to Q1 2026, Pagaya reported total revenue of about US$1.3b and net income of US$94.1 million, with basic EPS of US$1.17.
• Consensus narrative highlights growing AI driven products and new bank partnerships as key earnings drivers, and these latest figures line up with that story by showing:
  • Revenue over the trailing period rising from US$1.08b to US$1.33b alongside a swing from a loss of US$372.8 million to a profit of US$94.1 million.
  • Quarterly net income moving from US$7.4 million in Q1 2025 to US$24.7 million in Q1 2026, which helps support the idea of better monetisation of the platform.

Profit swing vs US$140.2 million one off loss

• The trailing 12 month data still includes a one off loss of US$140.2 million, even though the same period moved from a loss of US$401.4 million to a profit of US$94.1 million.
• Bears argue that large one off items and earnings quality are a concern, and the data gives both sides something to point to:
  • The presence of a US$140.2 million one off loss supports the cautious view that reported earnings can be noisy and need a closer look.
  • At the same time, the shift from a quarterly loss of US$237.9 million in Q4 2024 to positive net income in every reported quarter of 2025 and into Q1 2026 challenges the idea that the business is stuck in a loss making pattern.

Over the last year, that mix of a cleaner profit run rate plus a large adjustment is exactly what skeptics point to when they question how repeatable the current earnings level is, and it is the same mix bulls use to argue the worst of the clean up is already in the numbers. 🐻 Pagaya Technologies Bear Case

Valuation gap vs US$169.06 DCF fair value

• The stock trades at US$15.50 with a trailing P/E of 13.6x, compared with a DCF fair value of about US$169.06 and higher P/E multiples of roughly 31.2x for peers and 29.3x for the US Software industry.
• Bullish investors point to this valuation gap plus earnings growth forecasts of about 35.7% a year as a key part of their case, and the latest earnings support that argument in a few ways:
  • The move from a trailing loss of US$372.8 million to a profit of US$94.1 million helps explain why the stock now has a conventional P/E multiple at all, which bulls see as a starting point rather than an end state.
  • The combination of US$1.33b of trailing revenue and a market price well below the US$169.06 DCF fair value makes the spread between current pricing and modeled fair value a central question for anyone looking at the stock.

If you want to see how supporters connect these earnings and valuation gaps to their long term thesis, it is worth reading the full bullish case in one place. 🐂 Pagaya Technologies Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Pagaya Technologies on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Seen enough to get a feel for the story, or still on the fence about how the recent earnings stack up against the risks and rewards on the table? Take a few minutes to go through the key data points yourself, then balance the upside and downside using the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Pagaya's story still includes a large one off loss and questions around how repeatable its current profit run rate and earnings quality really are.

If you want stocks where earnings look steadier and big surprises are less of a concern, start comparing ideas with the 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.