Paycom Software (PAYC) just reported first quarter 2026 results that topped analyst expectations, reaffirmed its full year guidance and paired those figures with a new US$2b buyback and a regular cash dividend.

The strong first quarter beat, new US$2b buyback and regular dividend coincide with a sharp 1-day share price return of 9.55% and 7-day share price return of 9.21%. However, the 1-year total shareholder return of 44.03% and 5-year total shareholder return of 54.16% indicate that longer term momentum has been weak.

If this earnings bounce has you reassessing the sector, it can be useful to broaden your watchlist and see what stands out in the 18 top founder-led companies

With Paycom trading at US$138.43, sitting at a discount to analyst targets and a materially higher intrinsic value estimate, the question is whether the market is underpricing the stock or already factoring in its next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 46.9% Undervalued

Paycom's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $260.61, well above the last close at $138.43. This puts a spotlight on what is driving that gap.

New Recurring Revenue is strongly correlated (0.95 R Squared) to Sales and Marketing Expense from the preceding year. We can gauge whether New RR will grow based on the growth in Sales and Marketing Expense.

Want to understand why this narrative sees so much upside? It leans heavily on recurring revenue strength, margin resilience and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for premium software stocks.

Result: Fair Value of $260.61 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on Beti execution and recurring revenue trends. Slower client adoption or weaker New Recurring Revenue would challenge the upside case.

Next Steps

With sentiment this divided, it makes sense to check the numbers and narrative for yourself so you can decide what really matters. You can start with the full breakdown of 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.