A week ago, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ:PBYI) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 6.7% better than analyst forecasts at US$45m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.07 per share, were 6.7% smaller than the analyst expected. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their mind on Puma Biotechnology after the latest results.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from solitary analyst covering Puma Biotechnology is for revenues of US$222.0m in 2026. This implies a noticeable 2.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 39% to US$0.29 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$218.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.32 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

Althoughthe analyst has revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 7.1% to US$5.00, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Puma Biotechnology's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Puma Biotechnology's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 3.0% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 1.6% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 22% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Puma Biotechnology is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Puma Biotechnology. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Puma Biotechnology going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.