• If you are wondering whether Republic Services stock is priced fairly today or carrying a premium, this article walks through the key valuation angles that matter to long term investors.
• After a recent close at US$213.50, the stock shows mixed return signals, with gains of 4.2% over 7 days and 3.1% over 30 days, alongside a 1.6% return year to date but a decline of 11.8% over the past year.
• These moves sit against a longer track record where the stock has returned 46.0% over 3 years and 105.0% over 5 years. This performance may shape how investors think about its current pricing and raises the question of whether today's level reflects a temporary pause or a more cautious view on Republic Services.
• On Simply Wall St's valuation framework, Republic Services currently has a value score of 2 out of 6. This article will unpack that score using different valuation methods before finishing with a broader way to think about what the stock might be worth.

Republic Services scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Republic Services Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

In a Discounted Cash Flow model, future cash flows are projected and then discounted back to today using a required rate of return, giving an estimate of what Republic Services might be worth based on its cash generation rather than its share price moves.

For Republic Services, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $2.6b. Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, combining analyst estimates for the next few years with its own extrapolations through 2035. By 2030, projected Free Cash Flow is $3.3b, with interim yearly projections between 2026 and 2035 discounted back to today using the model’s required return assumptions.

Aggregating these discounted cash flows leads to an estimated intrinsic value of $250.59 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $213.50, this DCF output implies that Republic Services is trading at roughly a 14.8% discount to that estimate, which indicates that the stock is undervalued on this specific cash flow framework.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Republic Services is undervalued by 14.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 43 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Republic Services Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Republic Services, the P/E ratio is a useful way to connect what you pay for the stock with the earnings the business is generating today. Investors typically accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see the business as relatively lower risk, and look for a lower P/E when growth expectations or perceived risk are more modest.

Republic Services currently trades on a P/E of 30.28x. That sits above the Commercial Services industry average P/E of 21.70x and below the peer group average of 33.34x, so the stock is priced at a premium to the broader industry, but not at the top end of its closer peer set.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Republic Services is 22.71x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be based on factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, its industry, profit margins, market cap and key risks. Because it adjusts for these company specific features, the Fair Ratio can offer a more tailored reference point than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages. On this framework, the current P/E of 30.28x is higher than the Fair Ratio, which points to Republic Services stock screening as overvalued using this earnings based method.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Republic Services Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand what Republic Services might be worth, and that is through Narratives. In this approach, you set out a clear story for the company, link that story to your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, and let the Simply Wall St Community tools turn those assumptions into a fair value. That fair value can then be compared with the current price so you can judge whether the stock looks expensive or attractive on your terms. The Narrative automatically updates as new news or earnings arrive. This means one investor might build a higher fair value closer to the bullish US$270 analyst target if they put more weight on projects such as organics processing, AI supported recycling and acquisitions. Another investor might anchor nearer the US$200 bearish target if they focus more on risks such as softer volumes, tariff uncertainty or integration challenges.

Do you think there's more to the story for Republic Services? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.