Avista Corporation (NYSE:AVA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.3% to US$39.21 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$413m were what the analysts expected, Avista surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.43 per share, an impressive 84% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Avista are now predicting revenues of US$1.97b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 2.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 4.4% to US$2.59 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.61 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$41.33, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Avista analyst has a price target of US$50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$37.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Avista'shistorical trends, as the 5.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 7.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.2% per year. So although Avista is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$41.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Avista going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.