As you might know, D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$6.9b arriving 3.6% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.03, 5.9% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, D.R. Horton's 16 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$34.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 7.0% to US$10.68 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$34.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.27 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$162, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on D.R. Horton, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$193 and the most bearish at US$117 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that D.R. Horton's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than D.R. Horton.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for D.R. Horton. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that D.R. Horton's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$162, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for D.R. Horton going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether D.R. Horton is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.