As you might know, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) just kicked off its latest second-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Kaiser Aluminum delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting US$1.3b-17% above indicated-andUS$5.72-115% above forecasts- respectively This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Kaiser Aluminum, is for revenues of US$4.00b in 2026. This implies a noticeable 3.2% reduction in Kaiser Aluminum's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 25% to US$10.49 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.52 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at US$163even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Kaiser Aluminum, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$179 and the most bearish at US$142 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kaiser Aluminum's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.4% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Kaiser Aluminum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kaiser Aluminum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Kaiser Aluminum analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.