Shareholders might have noticed that The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to US$22.78 in the past week. Revenues of US$3.0b beat expectations by 3.2%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of US$0.81 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mosaic's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$12.9b in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.67 per share in 2026. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$13.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.27 in 2026. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding Mosaic's prospects after these latest results, with a minor downgrade to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

The average price target fell 7.5% to US$27.56, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Mosaic's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Mosaic analyst has a price target of US$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$19.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Mosaic is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 4.9% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 2.2% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So it looks like Mosaic is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Mosaic dropped from profits to a loss next year. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Mosaic going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Mosaic (at least 2 which are potentially serious) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.