DUBAI, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Andrew Mills, deputy bureau chief, Gulf

Visits, phone calls raise questions

From cryptic Gulf diplomacy and the widening Saudi–UAE chill, to fresh tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Saad Hariri’s unexpected reentry into Lebanese politics, this week’s Gulf Currents pieces together the signals — and contradictions — shaping the region’s direction.

The crescent moon was sighted across most of the Gulf on Tuesday night, signalling the start of Ramadan — though Oman, which did not confirm a sighting, will begin the holy month on Wednesday night.

Ramadan Mubarak. Wishing all those observing a month filled with peace, reflection and blessings.

News briefing:

• Iran briefly shut the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday during Revolutionary Guards drills, Iranian state media said, without clarifying whether the key waterway had fully reopened. The temporary halt underscores the vulnerability of Gulf crude and LNG exports to any Iranian move to close the chokepoint through which much of the region’s energy must flow — a lifeline for the global economy.

• Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani arrived in Venezuela on Tuesday, becoming one of the most senior foreign officials to visit Caracas since the U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro from power last month. Qatar has long served as an intermediary between the United States and Venezuela and the trip signals Doha’s determination to stay involved in Venezuela’s fragile post-Maduro transition.

• An Iraqi-Emirati consortium plans to build a $700 million subsea and land data cable linking the UAE to Turkey via Iraq, a project pitched as a faster, less congested alternative to existing routes through the Suez Canal. The move highlights intensifying Gulf competition to become the region's dominant AI-era connectivity hub, as Saudi and Emirati-backed infrastructure projects race to position the Middle East as a key data corridor between Asia and Europe.

Analysis: Signals or noise? Gulf diplomacy offers plenty of clues, little clarity

For close observers of Gulf diplomacy — like our Reuters team in the Gulf bureau — the past two weeks have felt like a regional version of Kremlinology. In the old Soviet watching days, analysts parsed the removal of a portrait or a leader’s seating position to divine political currents. In the Gulf, the clues are different but no less revealing: an unexpected airport arrival, a cancelled visit, a phone call with no context.

Official readouts of these meetings are invariably glowing declarations of “fraternal ties” and “discussions on topics of mutual interest” — stock language that reveals little. The real significance may not emerge for months, if ever.

This fortnight brought a torrent of choreography: leader-to-leader calls across Qatar, the U.S., Pakistan and Turkey; a blur of midlevel travel — Bahrain’s crown prince in Kuwait and Doha, Qatar’s prime minister in Ankara, Iran’s Ali Larijani shuttling through Muscat and Doha; and, at the top tier, head-of-state visits, with Egyptian president Sisi and Qatari emir Tamim both heading to Abu Dhabi.

A few moments stand out.

Abu Dhabi was the stage. Sisi arrived last week and sat with UAE ruler Mohammed bin Zayed. Then, unusually, Tamim dropped in on Saturday. As he and MBZ dined alfresco under palm trees and umbrellas, a Diet Coke placed just so, what messages were passed beneath the easy optics of fraternal warmth?

But by Monday and Tuesday, Turkey’s Erdogan and Greece’s prime minister abruptly postponed their Abu Dhabi trips. Social media erupted with rumour, but no explanation followed.

Meanwhile, Iran–U.S. diplomacy pushed on — a second U.S. aircraft carrier moving toward the region to add to the military buildup even as Geneva talks offered a bit of optimism.

Amid the regional diplomatic flurry, what stands out most is how little contact there has been between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Saudi–UAE rift is stark, given MBZ and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman once partnered closely. Now they sit on opposing sides in Yemen and Sudan, and in an escalating economic rivalry: the UAE surging in finance and AI, while Saudi Arabia strains to fund vast ambitions and retools its megaprojects.

Officially, there is silence between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Apart from a brief encounter at the Munich Security Conference between Saudi foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan, UAE presidential advisor Anwar Gargash and other Arab officials, leader-level contact has evaporated — a void that may be the most telling signal of all.

Final Wave: Hariri 4.0: Back in the game?

Saad Hariri’s brief appearance in Beirut this week — a rare return by a politician long shaped by Gulf power dynamics — has reignited speculation about whether the three-time Lebanese prime minister is edging back toward the stage he once dominated.

Hariri, heir to a major Sunni political dynasty and son of Rafik Hariri, the former premier whose 2005 assassination reshaped Lebanon’s politics, used a memorial for his father to hint that his Future Movement may contest upcoming elections — a notable shift after years of political retreat.

He has spent much of the last few years in Abu Dhabi, keeping a low profile. His withdrawal followed a bruising period in his Gulf ties, most vividly the 2017 episode when he was summoned to Riyadh, had his phone confiscated and was pushed into reading a resignation statement on a Saudi-owned TV channel — an incident that shocked Lebanon and severed his once-close alliance with Saudi Arabia.

Whether he plans to run again remains unclear. Still, his reappearance suggests Lebanon’s Sunni landscape may be shifting — and Gulf capitals that once helped shape his rise are watching closely.