Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.4% to US$8.48 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of CN¥7.94 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of CN¥620m came in 8.0% ahead of analyst predictions. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Noah Holdings' four analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be CN¥2.66b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥2.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥9.49 in 2026. Overall, while there's been a minor downgrade to revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important following the latest results.

Intriguingly,the analysts have cut their price target 8.1% to US$11.13 showing a clear decline in sentiment around Noah Holdings' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Noah Holdings analyst has a price target of US$12.78 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.20. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Noah Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.6% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 11% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.7% per year. Although Noah Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that the analysts cut their forecast revenue estimates for Noah Holdings next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

At least one of Noah Holdings' four analysts has provided estimates out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.