Shareholders of Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 16% to US$230 following its latest quarterly results. Royal Gold reported US$451m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.78 beat expectations, being 8.2% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Royal Gold's six analysts is for revenues of US$1.91b in 2026. This reflects a major 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 39% to US$12.15. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.88 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Royal Gold's future following the latest results, with a substantial gain in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$302, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Royal Gold analyst has a price target of US$350 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$209. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Royal Gold's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 54% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 15% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Royal Gold is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Royal Gold's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Royal Gold going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Royal Gold , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.