The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Ka Sing Chan

HONG KONG, May 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Gianni Infantino, head of soccer's global governing body, has called this year's men's World Cup the "most inclusive" in history. Try telling that to fans in China and India, who at this rate might not even be able to watch. TV rights stand-offs risk shutting nearly 3  billion potential viewers out, undermining Infantino's welcoming rhetoric. It's a wrinkle in the sport's emerging-market growth hopes.

FIFA is expecting a blockbuster $8.9 billion in revenue this year, as superstars like France's Kylian Mbappé and England's Harry Kane descend on North America. The biggest chunk, at $3.9 billion, is supposed to come from selling the broadcasting rights. That would be one-third higher than in the 2022 Qatar World Cup. The increase might seem puzzling: global viewership, as a percentage of the population, didn't materially grow between 2014 and 2022, based on the number of peoplewho watched at least 20 minutes on linear TV.

The tournament will expand to 48 teams from the traditional 32, as FIFA banks on more countries and matches to lift revenue. Yet China still didn't manage to qualify for the expanded competition. India, which has never played at a World Cup, missed the cut as usual.

Worse, FIFA appears to have misjudged broadcasters' demand in the world's two most populous countries. Beijing Daily reported that the soccer body initially wanted up to $300 million for the Chinese rights, which state broadcaster CCTV balked at; state-run news portal Sixthtone reported on May 8 that Infantino's team has since lowered the asking price by half. Many matches will kick off deep into the night in the People's Republic. There's also a deadlock in India, where a Reliance-Disney joint venture has offered $20 million for the local rights. According to Reuters, which cited two sources, that price was not acceptable to FIFA. Tycoon Mukesh Ambani's ​Reliance RELI.NS may feel emboldened to make such a lowball offer given the limited competition following its deal with Disney, struck in 2024.

The stand-off will worry Chinese sponsors, including dairy giant Mengniu 2319.HK and TV maker Hisense 600060.SS, that have poured a combined $500 million into the tournament, based on figures reportedby Global Times. Global brands like Adidas ADSGn.DE and Coca-Cola KO.N, meanwhile, risk missing the chance to reach two giant markets. China and India ranked first and ninth globally for linear TV World Cup reach in 2022, with 510 million and 84 million viewers, respectively, according to FIFA figures.

The good news is that sports can be a diplomatic icebreaker. Think of China’s rapprochement with the NBA after years of tension, followed by Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping last year. With the US president visiting his opposite number in Beijing this week, a deal is still possible.

Still, the episode contains a broader lesson for Western soccer businesses, like $3.3 billion publicly listed Manchester United MANU.N. Sports CEOs tend to assume that populous Asian countries will fuel revenue growth in the future, as TV rights deals in the Western markets stagnate. Yet if even the World Cup struggles to attract much demand among broadcasters, lesser competitions may be in for a shock.

CONTEXT NEWS

FIFA has concluded agreements with broadcasters in over 175 territories globally to show World Cup matches, but there has been no announcement for China and India. The finals are due to start on June 11. "Discussions in China and India regarding the sale ⁠of media rights for the FIFA World Cup 2026 are ongoing and must remain confidential at this stage," FIFA said in a statement, Reuters reported on May 4.

China accounted for 17.7% and India 2.9% of the global linear TV reach of the 2022 tournament. The two countries together accounted for 22.6% of ​total global digital streaming reach for that World Cup, Reuters reported on May 4.