The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

By Una Galani

HONG KONG, May 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If U.S. authorities end actions against Gautam Adani, outsized regulatory concerns around the Indian tycoon's $150 billion eponymous energy and infrastructure empire will ease. Political ones will remain, but the battle-hardened group is in a better position to ride out whatever crisis comes next. If nothing else, that's a win for India.

A flurry of developments suggests the billionaire will soon draw a line under his problems stateside. On Thursday, court filings showed he agreed to settle a case with the Securities and Exchange Commission alleging he made false or misleading statements in connection with a $750 million Adani Green ADNA.NS bond offering. And the Justice Department, per source-based reporting by multiple news outlets, looks set to drop fraud charges in a parallel criminal case over an alleged scheme to pay over $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials so his company could win approval to develop India's largest solar power plant.

It all comes at a cost. Besides the total fines that could amount to $300 million, per Reuters reporting citing unnamed sources, Adani is on the hook to invest $10 billion in the U.S. economy, equivalent to as much as two-thirds of the group's promised annual capital expenditure over the next five years. His lawyer, Robert Giuffra, also a personal attorney of U.S. President Donald Trump, told the Justice Department the group couldn't make the pledged investment while the case was proceeding.

The Adani empire's worth has also taken a battering: the market value of the flagship airports-to-datacentre incubator, Adani Enterprises ADEL.NS, is 73% of what it was in early 2023 before it was targeted by short-seller Hindenburg Research, prior to the U.S. issues arising. Adani Total Gas ADAG.NS, Adani Green and Adani Energy Solutions ADAI.NS are also worth less. Yet if the U.S. actions do end, the Indian conglomerate will emerge stronger from the successive crises.

The tycoon's companies now trade on less outrageously eye-watering valuations. India's securities regulator has effectively cleared Adani of the stock manipulation charges levelled by Hindenburg. Adani has unwound pledged shares. Such concerns held back institutional investors from investing in the group. Drawing a line under the U.S. accusations means Adani's empire could now welcome more high-quality shareholders onto its registers; it would also loosen a fundraising straitjacket worn by the group over the past three years. Adani company shares were not very big movers at the open on Friday as the settlements were expected. Yet once they are fully in hand, the group will find it easier and cheaper to raise capital and refinance its $29 billion of net debt.

The group will have to live with the perceived political risk stemming from its rapid rise under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. Investors are less jittery about the success of Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries RELI.NS and the Tata group because those other too-big-to-fail Indian conglomerates have thrived over many more decades and political transitions. Whenever that test arises, though, the toughened-up Adani group will be better placed to face it.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar agreed to pay a total of $18 million to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that they made false or misleading statements in offering materials in connection with a $750 million Adani Green bond offering, court filings dated May 14 showed.

The Justice Department is also moving to drop fraud charges against Adani in a parallel criminal case, Bloomberg reported earlier on the same day.

The proposed SEC settlement, in which neither defendant admits to or denies the allegations, requires the approval of a district court. The original SEC complaint was filed in November 2024.

Adani's lawyer, Robert Giuffra, who is also a personal attorney of U.S. President Donald Trump, told Justice Department officials in a presentation last month that the group could not make a pledged $10 billion investment in the U.S. economy while the case was proceeding, Reuters reported citing an unnamed source.

In November 2024, federal prosecutors charged Adani and six other executives over an alleged scheme to pay over $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials so his company could win approval to develop India's largest solar power plant.

Separately, the Adani group is in talks to pay potentially $265 million to settle an investigation by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control involving shipping Iranian gas, the New York Times reported, citing people briefed on the matter.