The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Gabriel Rubin

WASHINGTON, June 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Kevin Warsh’s ideal economy employs fewer “Fed watchers.” The nebulous class of economists, investors, policymakers and journalists who track central bankers’ every utterance has grown massively since the 2008 financial crisis. In his first press conference as the Federal Reserve’s chair on Wednesday, Warsh extolled the virtues of giving them shorter statements and less prognostication to work with. Brevity can serve to avoid clashes with a president hostile to independent monetary policy. It can only go so far in a crisis, though.

Of all Warsh’s criticisms of the modern Fed, his distaste for its communications strategy is likely to win the most sympathy from incumbent officials, especially right now. There’s little they can say about the future of monetary policy that would dispel widespread uncertainty about artificial intelligence or the fallout of the Iran war. Nonetheless, they once again offered longer-term rate forecasts, which point to a hike later in the year. Warsh didn’t submit his own projection for the so-called “dot plot.”

Though he stuck to holding a post-meeting press conference, instituted by Ben Bernanke in 2011, the nudge to fellow governors and regional bank leaders is unmistakable. Fewer speeches and predictions would take the spotlight off officials who are already in presidential crosshairs. The administration has threatened to take a more active role in filling some of these seats, an ominous intrusion into monetary independence.

Besides, the job of Fed officials is to set monetary policy and monitor economic developments through research and engagement with businesses and workers, not to be the entertainment at rubber-chicken dinners hosted by local chambers of commerce. Inflation is running well above the target, at 4.2%, meaning that Wednesday’s decision to hold rates may just be the lull before a tightening move. Mixed messages could wrongfoot markets just as they’re proving surprisingly resilient. More importantly, they could raise Donald Trump’s hackles, reigniting a bullying campaign in favor of easy money.

The reality of Warsh’s term is that it will likely straddle two very different eras. The current era, defined by presidential attacks on the central bank’s independence, will hopefully subside if the Supreme Court rules to protect Fed officials from a stream of attacks and attempted firings. What comes afterwards, especially once the sui generis Trump leaves office, waits to be determined. In the meantime, though, if stubborn inflation necessitates higher rates, explanations will be in order. Everyone’s a Fed watcher when prices are rising.

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CONTEXT NEWS

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on June 17, but policymakers expect a hike in borrowing costs later this ​year as inflation continues to run above the U.S. central bank's 2% target.

The two-day conference of the Federal Open Market Committee was Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair.