SOFTS-Cocoa hits 3-week peak as El Nino looms, robusta rallies

Updates prices, adds details

- Cocoa futures on ICE hit three-week highs on Wednesday amid fears that the El Nino weather pattern will harm next season's output, while robusta coffee hit three-month peaks.


COCOA

  • London cocoa LCCc2 rose 0.4% to £3,168 a ton at 1450 GMT, having settled up 6.4% on Tuesday. The contract earlier hit its highest since late May at £3,257.

  • The market has been supported by indications the El Nino weather pattern may significantly crimp 2026/27 output in West Africa and in No. 3 producer Ecuador.

  • Broker StoneX said analysts were already reducing their forecasts for top grower Ivory Coast after crop surveys showed "no meaningful recovery of (cocoa) pod setting and counts".

  • The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees a 63% probability of a very strong or "super El Niño" heading into 2027.

  • "If the forecast materialises, the El Niño would be one of the largest in NOAA’s historical record dating back to 1950," said Rabobank.

  • New York cocoa CCc2 edged up 0.1% to $4,237 a ton.


COFFEE

  • Arabica coffee KCc2 edged up 0.1% to $2.7290 per lb, having settled up 5.2% on Tuesday.

  • Robusta coffee LRCc2 rose 1.1% to $3,636 a ton, having hit its highest since late March at $3,659.

  • Brazil's top coffee co-operative Cooxupe said its farmers had harvested 15.8% of their 2026 crop as of June 14, the lowest percentage in four years as El Nino-linked rains disrupted picking last week.

  • El Niño is especially problematic for robusta as it typically brings high temperatures and reduced rains to Vietnam and Indonesia, which grow some 50% of the world's robusta.

  • The weather pattern initially brings excess rains to Brazil, followed by dryness and heat that can hurt the following year's crop.


SUGAR

  • Raw sugar SBc1 rose 1.1% to 13.97 cents per lb, having hit a near two-month low of 13.56 cents on Tuesday.

  • Energy price declines continue to pressure the market by tempting cane mills to produce less ethanol fuel and more sugar.

  • Brazil's Jalles Machado JALL3.SA expects its 2026/27 sugar production to fall by 4.2% to 418,100 tons, while ethanol output is seen rising 18%.

  • Longer term, however, there are fears El Nino will curb production.

  • White sugar LSUc1 gained 0.2% to $450.60 a ton.

  • Ukraine's white sugar output is expected to fall to 1.2-1.3 million tons this year from 1.7 million tons in 2025.