South African rand firms ahead of GDP data

- The South African rand strengthened in early trade on Tuesday as investors awaited first-quarter gross domestic product data, with growth expected to remain modest.

  • At 0705 GMT, the rand traded at 16.44 against the U.S. dollar ZAR=D3, up about 0.5% from its previous close.

  • Statistics South Africa is due to release GDP figures at 0900 GMT, offering fresh clues on the health of Africa's most industrialized economy.

  • Economists polled by Reuters forecast GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter ZAGDPN=ECI, down from 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, and 1.8% year-on-year.

  • Nedbank economists expect growth to slow to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, with services leading gains alongside agriculture and mining, while manufacturing, electricity and construction remain under pressure.

  • "We still expect economic growth to improve slightly from 1.1% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026, mainly driven by consumer demand, which should continue to benefit from earlier interest rate cuts. The war in Iran, however, poses significant downside risks", Nedbank said in a note.

  • On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index .JTOPI was up 0.7% in early trade.

  • South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond ZAR2035= was stronger in early deals, as the yield fell 4.5 basis points to 8.695%.