As you might know, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STOK) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Overall results were decent, with revenues of US$6.2m beating estimates by21%. Statutory losses were subsequently less thanthe analysts had expected, at US$0.79 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Stoke Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$26.2m revenue in 2026, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 18% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.29 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$26.9m and losses of US$3.46 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

The consensus price target rose 8.2% to US$45.10, with the analysts increasingly optimistic about shrinking losses, despite the expected decline in revenue. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Stoke Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$60.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$35.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 24% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 72% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 22% per year. It's pretty clear that Stoke Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stoke Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Stoke Therapeutics , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.