StoneX Group (SNEX) is back on investors’ radar as the company heads into its third quarter earnings release and rolls out a new payments partnership with South Korea’s Shinhan Bank.

The StoneX Group share price has pulled back around 5% over the past month but is still up more than 70% year to date, while multi year total shareholder returns remain very strong. This points to momentum that has cooled in the short term but stayed firm over a longer horizon as investors weigh the upcoming earnings release and the new Shinhan Bank payments partnership.

If this kind of payments and FX story has your attention, it can be useful to compare with other financial infrastructure plays by checking out 19 top founder-led companies

StoneX Group now trades at a sizeable discount to published analyst targets, even after a strong run and recent pullback. Is that a simple pricing gap, or a fair reflection of the risks investors see around earnings and the Shinhan deal?

Most Popular Narrative: 50.8% Undervalued

According to HedgeY, the most followed narrative on StoneX Group sees a fair value of $155 per share versus the last close at $76.19. That gap hinges on how durable the earnings power and book value compounding turn out to be.

The R.J. O’Brien acquisition, completed in July 2025, made StoneX the largest non bank futures commission merchant in the United States and strengthened its listed derivatives, clearing, and commodity brokerage franchise.

That matters because StoneX’s model benefits when clients need to hedge, trade, finance inventory, access liquidity, or manage risk. In uncertain markets, StoneX does not need to perfectly predict direction. It benefits from activity.

Want to understand why HedgeY thinks StoneX Group can support that higher fair value? The narrative leans heavily on earnings power, book value growth, and how much activity the enlarged platform can handle.

Result: Fair Value of $155 (UNDERVALUED)

However, investors in StoneX Group also need to consider that a cooler volatility backdrop, or any stumble integrating R.J. O’Brien, could quickly blunt this undervalued thesis.

Another View: DCF Flags StoneX Group As Expensive

The user narrative sees StoneX Group as materially undervalued at a fair value of $155 per share. Our DCF model points in the opposite direction. At a last close of $76.19, StoneX trades well above an estimated future cash flow value of $20.87, which frames the stock as expensive on this measure. Which lens feels more reliable to you when growth normalises and cash flows matter more than headlines?

For investors who want to see how this cash flow view is built step by step, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out StoneX Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

The mix of bullish and cautious takes on StoneX Group shows there is no single clear answer right now, so it pays to move quickly and test the numbers for yourself while sentiment is divided. To weigh both sides in one place, start with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more StoneX Group style investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.