TABLE-IMF dials back global economic outlook again citing war, trade and lofty AI expectations
July 8 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast again, warning of ongoing risks posed by the war in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and market expectations surrounding AI and the tech sector.
2026 estimates |
July vs prior estimates |
||||||
July |
April |
January |
October |
vs April |
vs January |
vs October |
|
World |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
United States |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
Euro Area |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
Germany |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.4 |
-0.2 |
France |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
Italy |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.3 |
Spain |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
Japan |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
United Kingdom |
1.0 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
Canada |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
-0.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.4 |
Emerging Markets |
3.8 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.4 |
-0.2 |
China |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
India |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
Russia |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
Brazil |
2.4 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
Mexico |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
Saudi Arabia |
1.7 |
3.1 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
-1.4 |
-2.8 |
-2.3 |
Nigeria |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
South Africa |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
2027 estimates |
July vs prior estimates |
||||||
July |
April |
January |
October |
vs April |
vs January |
vs October |
|
World |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
United States |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Euro Area |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
Germany |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
France |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
Italy |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
Spain |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
Japan |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
United Kingdom |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
Canada |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
Emerging Markets |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
China |
4.1 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
India |
6.7 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Russia |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Brazil |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
Mexico |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
Saudi Arabia |
5.5 |
4.5 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
Nigeria |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
South Africa |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
Notes:
Figures in the annual estimates columns are annual percentage change in GDP.
Figures in the change columns are the net difference in percentage points of July's forecast vs prior forecasts.