Tariff policy has swung again, and this time billions of dollars in refunds with interest are flowing back to US businesses after a Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs. That extra cash can matter a lot for small and mid cap Industrials and Consumer Discretionary stocks that import components or finished goods, especially when balance sheets are tight and trade rules keep shifting. This article looks at 3 stocks exposed to this tariff refund story, all potentially positioned on the positive side of the news, and explains how this mix of refunds, uncertainty and ongoing tariffs could shape their risk and opportunity profile for investors.

Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)

Overview: Custom Truck One Source provides rental, sales, and servicing of highly specialized trucks and equipment, such as bucket trucks, cranes, and digger derricks, to utility, telecom, rail, forestry, waste management, and other infrastructure customers across the US and Canada.

Operations: Custom Truck One Source generates virtually all of its revenue in the US at about US$1.95b, with a smaller contribution of roughly US$37.6m from Canada.

Market Cap: US$2.34b

Custom Truck One Source sits at the intersection of multi year grid and telecom investment, a growing rental fleet, and the potential tailwind of tariff refunds that can free up cash for more equipment and balance sheet improvement. The company is still reporting losses, carries relatively high leverage, and relies on cyclical infrastructure spending, so this is not a low risk utility style stock. Recurring rental revenue, bonus depreciation benefits for customers, new index inclusions, and a cooperative purchasing contract with Sourcewell all point to a business that could look quite different if management continues to reduce debt and improve margins, particularly if tariff refunds support faster fleet growth and inventory optimization.

Custom Truck One Source looks like a fleet story that could accelerate if tariff refunds and debt reduction line up. It is worth reading the Custom Truck One Source financial health report for the key balance sheet twist investors often miss.

MarineMax (HZO)

Overview: MarineMax is a US based retailer of recreational boats and yachts that also runs higher margin services such as storage, maintenance, brokerage, financing, insurance, and yacht charters, including operations in the British Virgin Islands.

Operations: MarineMax generates most of its revenue from Retail Operations at about US$2.23b, with roughly US$110.8m from Product Manufacturing and a small intersegment elimination of about US$103.5m.

Market Cap: US$732.0m

MarineMax sits at the point where luxury leisure spending, import heavy inventory, and tariff volatility meet, so the recent Supreme Court driven tariff refunds are especially important. The company is still reporting losses, with recent quarters showing sales pressure and a net loss, and its interest costs are not well covered, so this is not a low risk story. At the same time, potential refund driven liquidity, a broad services mix, refinancing of US$1.49b in facilities out to 2031, and expansion into offerings like Ducari Yachts all frame MarineMax as a stock where trade policy relief could intersect with operational self help in ways that current pricing and earnings headlines do not fully capture.

MarineMax looks like a pressure point where tariff refunds, luxury demand and fresh financing could be masking a very different earnings story than recent headlines suggest. It is worth reading the analysis report for MarineMax to see how the balance of losses, liquidity and imported inventory risk really stacks up.

AAON (AAON)

Overview: AAON designs and manufactures heating and cooling equipment such as rooftop units, data center cooling systems, cleanroom solutions, and heat pumps that serve commercial customers in areas like retail, manufacturing, education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and data centers across the US and Canada.

Operations: AAON generates most of its revenue from AAON Oklahoma at about US$972.2m, with additional contributions from AAON Coil Products at roughly US$368.2m and BasX at around US$385.1m, partly offset by about US$108.6m in eliminations.

Market Cap: US$8.65b

AAON is attracting attention because it sits at the intersection of surging demand for energy efficient HVAC and AI driven data center cooling, policy support, tariff refunds, and its own capacity build out. The BASX division has become a major growth engine, supported by a large data center focused backlog and new manufacturing capacity that could shift from cash drain to earnings support as utilization improves. At the same time, investors need to weigh ERP related disruptions, margin pressure, cash burn concerns, and a rich P/E multiple against the raised 2026 guidance and strong order book. The tariff refund story adds another layer of potential fuel for reinvestment that many investors may not yet be fully factoring in.

AAON’s growth story in data center and energy efficient cooling is getting plenty of attention, but the real swing factor may be how cash burn, margins and that richer P/E fit together in the analysis report for AAON

The three stocks covered here are just a starting point, and the full US Small and Mid Cap Industrials and Consumer Discretionary Stocks screener surfaces 20 more US small and mid cap Industrials and Consumer Discretionary companies with import exposure that could have similarly interesting tariff and cash flow angles. Use Simply Wall St to identify and analyze the specific catalysts, tariff sensitivities and balance sheet narratives that matter most to you, so you can focus on the ideas you have the highest conviction in, in minutes instead of hours.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.