Shareholders of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ:TXRH) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 16% to US$184 following its latest quarterly results. Texas Roadhouse reported US$1.6b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.87 beat expectations, being 4.5% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Texas Roadhouse from 28 analysts is for revenues of US$6.53b in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 7.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$6.41, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.28 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Texas Roadhouse's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$194, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Texas Roadhouse, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$234 and the most bearish at US$165 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Texas Roadhouse's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Texas Roadhouse following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Texas Roadhouse analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.