A few weeks ago, we looked at Fidelity’s latest retirement analysis that showed, despite all the market volatility, most retirement savers did exactly what advisors hope they would: they stayed the course, which led to savings rates reaching record levels.

But saving is only part of the equation. The next question advisors need to consider is whether those savings will actually be enough to carry clients through retirement, and new data suggests the answer may depend heavily on where they live.

The average 65-year-old is projected to face a $109,000 shortfall between what they’ll receive from Social Security, savings and investments, and what they’ll spend on necessities over a typical retirement. Even more striking, retirees in 41 states are projected to outlive their financial resources.

Location plays a surprisingly large role. Data from CareScout estimates that New York retirees face the largest projected gap, at $471,000, while Washington retirees have the biggest projected cushion, at $276,000. The difference reflects more than just income or savings, it’s the cumulative impact of housing, healthcare, groceries and other costs during retirement.

Rank	State	Expected Shortfall
1	New York	-$471,000
2	District of Columbia	-$432,000
3	California	-$395,000
4	Alaska	-$350,000
5	New Mexico	-$277,000
6	Louisiana	-$241,000
7	Arkansas	-$237,000
8	Vermont	-$232,000
9	Kentucky	-$209,000
10	Rhode Island	-$200,000
11	Massachusetts	-$190,000
12	Arizona	-$163,000
13	Mississippi	-$160,000
14	Oklahoma	-$147,000
15	Alabama	-$136,000
16	South Carolina	-$127,000
17	Nevada	-$125,000
18	Missouri	-$124,000
19	West Virginia	-$114,000
20	Ohio	-$113,000
21	Oregon	-$111,000
22 (tie)	North Carolina	-$104,000
22 (tie)	Texas	-$104,000
24	Connecticut	-$97,000
25	Wisconsin	-$90,000
26	Delaware	-$87,000
27	Indiana	-$76,000
28	Georgia	-$69,000
29	Hawaii	-$58,000
30	South Dakota	-$56,000
31	Kansas	-$55,000
32	North Dakota	-$50,000
33 (tie)	Michigan	-$48,000
33 (tie)	Virginia	-$48,000
35	Maine	-$44,000
36	Wyoming	-$38,000
37	Iowa	-$32,000
38	Pennsylvania	-$31,000
39	Tennessee	-$23,000
40	Florida	-$20,000
41	Illinois	-$19,000
42	New Jersey	-$398

The state-by-state breakdown is worth noting for several reasons. A portfolio that looks sufficient on paper can have a very different trajectory depending on where a client lives, particularly as expenses rise with age.

That could also make relocation a more important part of retirement planning. Clients may think about moving for weather, family or taxes, but the cost of living can change how long their assets last. The analysis even found that in just the past year, some states moved from projected shortfalls to surpluses, highlighting how quickly the retirement equation can change.

For advisors, the takeaway is to make retirement planning less about a single savings number and more about the variables surrounding it. Where will clients live? How might their spending change with age? What happens if healthcare or long-term care costs are higher than expected?

Retirement confidence often comes from seeing how the numbers hold up under different scenarios, not simply reaching a savings target.

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