A week ago, The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ:KHC) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$6.0b, some 2.9% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.67, 32% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 19 analysts covering Kraft Heinz is for revenues of US$24.4b in 2026. This implies a measurable 2.2% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Kraft Heinz is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$2.10 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$24.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.05 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$23.82, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kraft Heinz at US$42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$17.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Kraft Heinz's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 2.9% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 0.8% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 2.4% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Kraft Heinz is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Kraft Heinz's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.82, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kraft Heinz. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Kraft Heinz going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Kraft Heinz , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.