The Marzetti Company (NASDAQ:MZTI) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Marzetti reported US$1.9b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.98 beat expectations, being 5.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, Marzetti's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.00b in 2027. This would be a credible 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 5.3% to US$6.63 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.20 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 8.0% to US$147, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Marzetti, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$185 and the most bearish at US$118 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Marzetti's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Marzetti's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 4.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.1% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Marzetti is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Marzetti. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Marzetti going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Marzetti's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.