TREASURIES-US yields rise as Strait of Hormuz standoff continues

Oil remains above $100, keeping inflation concerns intact

Barclays pushes rate cut view back to 2027

US factory orders rose 1.5% in March, surpassing forecasts

By Chuck Mikolajczak

- U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors weighed how long shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be disrupted and the impact of higher energy prices on inflation and global monetary policy.

Oil prices pared earlier gains after the U.S. military said two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers had entered the Gulf to break an Iranian blockade, and that two U.S. merchant ships had transited the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had earlier said it prevented a U.S. warship from entering the Gulf.

Crude prices remained above $100 a barrel, keeping inflation concerns alive.

"In the interest rate market, we have rising inflation expectations ... and so that's driving some modest upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields, but at the same time, yields remain range-bound," said Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note US10YT=TWEB rose 3.4 basis points to 4.412%.

Since the U.S.-Iran war began at the end of February, yields have steadily climbed as worries about higher prices have dented market expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

"It makes sense that it's harder for the Fed to cut rates as energy prices are rising so much that's prompting headline inflation to creep higher. That being said, we haven't seen a significant amount of follow-through in core inflation," said Merz.

The yield on the 30-year bond US30YT=TWEB rose 3.1 basis points to 4.997%.

Barclays joined a growing list of brokerages expecting no rate cuts from the Fed this year, citing prolonged high energy prices linked to the Iran war that could keep inflation elevated. It had previously forecast one 25-basis-point cut in September.

Several firms have scaled back expectations for easing after markets priced in about 50 basis points of cuts at the start of the year.

The two-year US2YT=TWEB U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose 3.3 basis points to 3.921%.

Markets will have a flurry of labor market data this week, culminating in the government's jobs report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters forecast a 62,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls.

Data on Monday showed new orders for U.S. factory goods rose 1.5% in March, the biggest gain since November and well above forecasts for a 0.5% increase, according to the Commerce Department.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) US5YTIP=TWEB was last at 2.805%, its highest since August 2022, after closing at 2.702% on May 1.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate US10YTIP=TWEB was last at 2.498%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.5% a year for the next decade.