Trump Releases UFO Files: Here's What Prediction Markets Say About The Existence Of Aliens
The Pentagon released its first batch of declassified UFO files Friday, headlined by a 2023 incident in which seven federal officers separately reported seeing “orbs launching orbs” across multiple western states.
The release includes 162 files posted under Donald Trump’s PURSUE program, with 108 carrying redactions to protect witness identities and military sites.
What The Officers Saw
The officers reported the sightings over two days in 2023. They described orange orbs releasing smaller red ones, a large hovering glowing sphere, and an object resembling a “translucent kite.”
One agent likened a sighting to “the Eye of Sauron from Lord of the Rings, except without the pupil, or maybe an orange Storm Electrify bowling ball,” according to CBS News.
The Pentagon’s All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office flagged the case as “among the most compelling within AARO’s current holdings.”
Skeptics Say The Images Are Murky
Not everyone is convinced. The New York Times called the initial release “murky images that show what could be anything,” noting the government has promised more on a rolling basis.
A 2024 infrared clip from US Indo-Pacific Command and a 21-second feed from US Northern Command both fit that description, with grainy black-and-white footage standing in for the high-resolution evidence congressional disclosure advocates have long teased.
A 1969 Apollo 12 transmission from astronaut Alan Bean about “flashes of light” appearing to “escape the Moon” rounds out the older material.
Polymarket And Kalshi Whales Were Already Positioned
Traders have been pricing this exact moment for months.
Polymarket’s “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” contract has cleared more than $34 million in volume and is trading near 19%, while Kalshi’s market sits closer to 22%.
Both markets will resolve yes if officials announce that aliens or alien technology exist. Both markets dropped slightly on today’s release.
An anonymous Kalshi user placed back-to-back wagers totaling roughly $300,000 on alien confirmation in late February, according to The Atlantic.
The bets have since drawn comparisons to the alleged insider trading tied to the Iran strikes weeks later.
The files appear unlikely to settle the debate. Skeptics will keep calling the footage murky, true believers will keep seeing what they want to see.
Image: Shutterstock
