TXO Partners Q1 2026 earnings snapshot

TXO Partners (TXO) heads into Q1 2026 on the back of a mixed 2025, with fourth quarter revenue at US$125.9 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.52. This capped a trailing twelve month loss of US$0.43 per share on revenue of US$401.0 million. Over the past year, revenue has moved from US$282.8 million on a trailing basis in Q4 2024 to US$401.0 million by Q4 2025. Over the same period, trailing EPS shifted from a profit of US$0.66 to a loss of US$0.43, putting the spotlight firmly on how efficiently the partnership can convert production into sustainable margins.

See our full analysis for TXO Partners.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to set these results against the dominant narratives around TXO, to see which storylines fit the data and which ones get pushed back.

US$21.6 million trailing loss despite higher sales

• On a trailing twelve month basis, TXO booked a net loss of US$21.6 million on US$401.0 million of revenue, while earlier in the period it had reported trailing net income of US$23.5 million on US$282.8 million of revenue.
• What stands out for a more cautious, bearish view is that losses have grown at about 3% per year over five years, which sits alongside trailing revenue growth of 7.9% and keeps the business unprofitable even as sales expanded.
  • Critics highlight that Q4 2025 alone carried a net loss of US$28.3 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.52, reinforcing concerns about how much of the higher revenue is being absorbed by costs.
  • That pattern over the last 12 months lines up with the risk summary that flags ongoing unprofitability and less than one year of cash runway as key issues for investors to keep in view.

🐻 TXO Partners Bear Case

DCF fair value of US$62.16 vs US$12.50 price

• Analysts’ modeled DCF fair value sits at about US$62.16 per unit compared with a current price of US$12.50, and TXO trades on a P/S of about 1.7x versus an industry average near 2.1x.
• Supporters taking a more bullish stance point to this gap as meaningful, and the data gives that view some backing while also adding caveats.
  • The stock price is roughly one fifth of the DCF fair value estimate and below the US Oil & Gas industry average P/S, which supports the idea that expectations are already muted in the current valuation.
  • At the same time, the same risk summary that highlights a modeled upside also flags substantial shareholder dilution and a dividend yield of 13.68% that is not covered by earnings or free cash flow, so the bullish argument rests on improvement from a weak starting point.

Revenue growth trails market, earnings forecasts very high

• Trailing twelve month revenue growth has been around 7.9% per year, compared with a cited broader US market growth rate of 11.2% per year, while earnings are forecast to grow at a very large rate of about 101.6% per year with a move into profit within three years.
• The AI driven narrative around TXO sees it as a cash flow and consistency story, and the figures create an interesting mix for that idea.
  • On one hand, the annualized 7.9% revenue growth and total oil equivalent production of 10.3 MMboe over the last twelve months show a business that is adding volume and sales, which fits the view of a reserve based operator focused on steady output.
  • On the other hand, the combination of an unprofitable trailing EPS of US$0.43 loss and very high forecast EPS growth means a lot of the story still depends on execution and cost control rather than just the current production base.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on TXO Partners's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

Mixed signals or a clear story taking shape, either way it helps to move quickly and weigh the trade off between the concerns and the potential upside for yourself. You can start with the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

TXO is working with losses, thin coverage of its dividend, and less than one year of cash runway, which together highlight balance sheet pressure.

If that mix of earnings strain and limited cash makes you uneasy, shift some research time toward companies screened for sturdier finances using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.