Adds estimate of aluminium market deficit this year

LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - Aluminium prices are expected to be above $4,000 per metric ton between the third quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027 due to a market deficit caused mainly by the Iran war, an analyst from consultancy CRU said on Tuesday.

Aluminium prices CMAL3 on the London Metal Exchange are up 18% so far this year as the Middle East conflict disrupts both exports of metal by Gulf producers and imports of their raw materials. Two of the region's smelters were hit by Iranian strikes in late March.

The Middle East normally accounts for about 9% of global supply of aluminium, used in transport, construction and packaging.

• CRU sees a global aluminium market deficit of 1.4 million tons this year with production in the Gulf region falling by about one-quarter year-on-year, said Paul Williams, head of aluminium value chain at CRU.

• "We've seen deficits like this in the market before ... but this time it is going to be far more difficult," he told CRU's World Aluminium Conference in London.

• CRU sees aluminium prices reaching $4,020 a ton in the third quarter of 2026 and peaking at $4,105 in the second quarter of 2027, according to Williams' presentation.

• LME aluminium prices were last at $3,559 a ton on Tuesday, having touched a four-year high of $3,672 in mid-April.

• The metal hit a record high of $4,073.50 on March 7, 2022, when markets were grappling with the immediate fallout of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.