UPDATE 1-UBS raises September oil price forecasts

Adds additional details

- UBS UBSG.S raised its September oil price forecasts by $10 a barrel on Thursday, projecting Brent crude at $105 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $97.

  • The bank also raised its December and March forecasts by $5 per barrel.

  • UBS believes near-term risks remain skewed to the upside, reiterating that if the supply disruption lasts longer, prices could overshoot in the short term to trigger significant demand destruction.

  • Under this scenario, Brent would likely trade above $150 a barrel, and scarcity fears could lead to hoarding and further amplify price movements.

  • Iran has unveiled steps entrenching its control of the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which remains mostly closed.

  • Overall oil production losses likely reached 650 million barrels over March and April, and are on track to exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May, the bank said.

  • Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading around $106.99 a barrel by 1207 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 were at $100.58.