UPDATE 1-UK's Plus500 shares slump 16% on in-line forecast despite upbeat first half

Recasts first paragraph, adds details throughout including analyst comment, updates shares

- Plus500 PLUSP.L shares tumbled almost 16% on Monday after the fintech broker disappointed investors with annual forecast in line with market expectations despite its first-half customer income jumping to a five-year high.

Here are some more details:

  • The company said it expects full-year revenue and core profit to be in line with current market expectations of $811.5 million and $368.1 million, respectively.

  • Plu500 in February and April had forecast results to be ahead of market expectations.

  • "The board expects FY 2026 revenue and EBITDA to be in-line with current market expectations, following several upgrades this year," CEO David Zruia said in a statement.

  • Plus500 shares fell as much as 15.9% to £41.52, and were on track for their worst day since April 2019.

  • "We believe that the lack of upgrades given the macro environment and share price performance YTD might be perceived as slightly disappointing," Cavendish analysts said in a note.

  • The UK-listed fintech group said customer income rose 24% to $460.8 million for the six months ended June 30.

  • Heightened market volatility, such as that caused by the Iran war, drives up demand across global trading platforms as investors race to buy or sell their holdings.

  • The Israel-based trading platform expanded into U.S. consumer prediction markets, entering the business in February and rolling out sports event-based contracts in June.

  • Prediction markets have emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments in U.S. financial markets, with rivals such as Kalshi and Polymarket attracting strong retail investor interest in event-based trading.